In fact the tropical cyclones can originate in any season, for example, Ana, the first thunderstorm of this 2015 formed one month before the official beginning of this period, being the first tropical cyclone pre-season since 2012. Ana became present at the beginning of May in front of the southeast coast of the peninsula of Florida, as informed the National Center of Hurricanes (NHC) of the United States.
According to the results, the previous period (2014) was considered to be slightly active by the quantity of tropical thunderstorms developed in the Atlantic basin in general; nevertheless, if the entire number of hurricanes is taken into consideration, it could qualify like a normal period.
During this period nine tropical organisms were formed, one of which did not develop, eight turned into tropical thunderstorms and six of them became hurricanes. 63 % of the tropical thunderstorms had its origin related to tropical waves, number that is equal to the average percentage of the Atlantic basin.
Worried by these changes that happen already in the ambience since the last year, experts in safety, handling of risks and seasonal climatic prediction of diverse countries of the area of the Caribbean Sea coincide in pointing out that the current cyclonic period might be 20 % minor to the average between 1950-2014 or 30 % less than the average since 2015 to 2014.
In spite of these numbers other entities predict up to 45 % below the average (between 1950-2014) or close to 50 % below the average of 2005-2014, these would be the lowest values from 1992-1994, indicating a possible end of the active phase of the cyclonic activity of the Atlantic Ocean that started in 1995.
According to the specialists it is expected that the combination of colder waters than the average of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean, as well as the development of El Niño that is believed will reach its peak of moderate intensity, it would favoring at least to one of the least active periods since the middle of the nineties.
These prognoses are based on the increase observed in the migration of the winds of low magnitude across the tropical Atlantic Ocean from July to September, nevertheless it must be born in mind that the presence of the phenomenon of El Niño and the superficial temperature of the sea of the north Atlantic Ocean that is always unpredictable might alter these assumptions.
Anyway, our country, which has "cyclonic" culture, knows that it must always be aware and that in periods as these it must multiply the preparation. The devastation of the meteorological phenomena that have affected us could have much more catastrophic of not having been work in time.
Translated by BA in English Language, Manuel Barrera Téllez
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