CAMAGÜEY.- Storm Chasers in Camagüey City? Yes, but not the ones that risk their lives searching for an extraordinary photograph. The ones here are committed, using science, to provide the territory a system for early warning facing Severe Local Storms (SLS).

Some scientist state that it is impossible; others, that the time frame before the phenomenon is not enough. In the middle of that debate, the storm chasers of the Prediction Department in the Provincial Meteorological Center lose their sleep because of the anticipated diagnosis of the conditions causing these phenomena. A few years ago, the topic was left only for the cyclone season; however, the scenery has changed.

The SLS are formed by systems of clouds of great towering vertical, with a prevalence of Cumulonimbus that generate electrostatic discharges that are often followed by waterspouts, high spouts, tornados, hails or updrafts over the 92km/h. In Cuba, heavy rain, great rainfall and electrostatic discharges are not considered SLS.

According to Yosdanis Estrada Legrá, chief of the Prediction Department, "the SLS reports are not only institutional, and are influenced by factors such as population density and the presence of weather stations in the places where they take place. The radar, the satellite and the most common synoptic situations show a correlation with the reports in the municipalities. However, we broadcast the alerts and then we do not have feedback about what really happen; it is something that affects the real efficiency of the predictions".

Severe Local Storm (SLS). Systems of clouds of great towering vertical, with a prevalence of Cumulonimbus that generate electrostatic discharges that are often followed by waterspouts, high spouts, tornados, hails and updrafts over the 92km/h.

In provincial capital there is an average of 7.2 SLS every year. The most frequent months are May, June and September. There is an average of "29 SLS every year" in different places in the province.

Among the most destructive modalities there can be classified 32 tornadoes since 1970 to 2018, which make an average of 0.65 a year. In the city, we have suffered the strike of 17 tornadoes, (0.34 per year).

The central part of the territory of Camagüey is the likely to suffer storms, because there is very little wind. The main influence is the breezes from the North and the South that converge in this region. Camagüey, Florida and Esmeralda are the most affected.

A lot of damage could be avoided if our storm chasers could "guess them". Some symptoms are identified. When, for example, troughs or cold-core lows, among other phenomena, interact, generally there is severity. "It is hard to define them, although we make studies to be accurate. Here and in the capital, we have specialists focused on the exact type of SLS that is coming". The results of some studies gathered over some years allow to compare the conditions in which the phenomena have taken place and to determine possible scenarios that favor SLS.

A Severe Local Storm, recorded in the city of Florida, had hails of the size of a pea and strong electrostatic discharges, it was also recorded a severe local storm in the city of Las Tunas, yesterday afternoon between 16.38 and 16.43 with hails and strong winds coming in gusts up to 61 km/h in the weather station located in the city.

Yosdanis Estrada explains how the alert system works. "In the morning we analyze the existing conditions and if there is danger we stay alert and check the variables until the afternoon, the storm's favorite. If the conditions continue, in time, the presidents of the Government is notified, as well as the risk management groups, the Electric Company, among others. Our dream is an APK file (an app) that would allow us to directly send the information to the cellphones, which is a far more effective way than the e-mails".

Generally, the weather predictions are associated to the radars or satellites, and less is said about the atmospheric sounding. It is a device with sensors, covered with expanded polystyrene, and elevated by a balloon that cuts the atmosphere vertically. It evaluates variables from the surface up to a height of 19 miles.

"The probability of a SLS taking place can be predicted" reassures the meteorologist Eduardo Estrada Canosa, "since there is a severe weather threat index (SWEAT) developed in the United States in 1972, which tries to differentiate between severe and non-severe storms. Authors have proven that the thermodynamic rates need to be adapted to each region, so we are working in modifying the level of analysis and the application of new conditioning factors for the selection of the elements that intervene in Cuba, and reach a value in the permissible ranges of probability of SLS.

"Severe weather needs to be taken more seriously in any time of the year, but the effects can be mitigated, especially if a more forecasting prediction is made. The weather radar is able to determine areas of SLS, but with little time. Our projection is to foresee six or 12 hours ahead, and to have room for action. It is very difficult to reduce the impact of a tornado, but early alert is always welcomed. Luckily, it is not the most common type of SLS in the country; nevertheless, we do not rule out the possibility of an increase".

The factors that determine the storms, according to studies, are the humidity of low levels, instability, wind speed in low and high levels of the troposphere and wind shear. Once developed, the wind tells if it will hold or dissipate. "All of this is already set up in a software that allows us to diagnose probable areas, not only in Camagüey, also in a large part of Cuba", explained Eduardo Estrada.

Even though the weather radar does not predict, it does monitor closely the evolution of the cells (clouds, especially those towering vertical). While the intensity increases, the conditions for severe weather can be noticed. Adelante talked to Rafael Valdés Alberto, main specialist in Radar Meteorology of the National Radar Center, and member of an expert team that, in reaction to the tornado in Havana, researches this type of extreme phenomenon.

Cumulonimbus 11 miles high and 59dBZ, in its base generates a spout seen from the Provincial Meteorological Center in Camagüey.

"Currently the SLS that have taken place in the country are being studied. In the 70's the hail was a rare phenomenon' today is common and frequent within the category of severe weather. The truth is we are prepared for hurricanes, but not for other events, and these cause a great deal of damage. We have the data, but it needs to be reanalyzed.

"For instance, in the United States, it is known that the storms are dominated by mini-cells or super-cells, but we do not know what cells are dominant here, or if there is hybridization. Our analysis will allow us to know their thermodynamic behavior. There are previous studies, but they are of the surface impact, nothing more".

The group of scientists determined the prevailing conditions the day of the tornado in Havana in the different levels of the atmosphere, through the analysis of the information provided by the synoptic maps, satellite images, weather radars observations, surface measures and numeric models,

This could be the first step that leads them to foresee the whims of nature and place a step ahead. Beyond the scientific transcendence, these men and women, above the technological and financial limitations, think about the neighbor whose house is not so resistant, in the granny that need help to protect the refrigerator and the television set, in the cousin living in another province, in the whole family, in people you know and people you do not, in the humble people that suffers the death of a loved one; in the State, that loses resources, in the effort of so many that can go away in a matter of seconds. That is their main motivation, it is the reason that moves the storm chasers in Camagüey and in Cuba, to disbelieve the impossible.